There are few things that command as much attention as the idea of a black swan. The possibility that the idea of an angelic white swan can be turned on its head is as disturbing as it is unexpected. As a result of this and their natural rarity, the existence of black swans was earlier confined to myths and urban legends. Their subsequent discovery and acknowledgement gave them particular symbolic value of being beyond human expectations.
A Black Swan event ( capitalized ) is one which is unexpected and when realized, impacts the world in a way that shakes the ground beneath everyone's feet. These events are often followed by attempts by people to then rationalize the event and claim that the event was predictable and could have been prepared for.
Our lives are shaped more by past Black Swan events than by the cumulative effect of all other events.Rare and improbable events occur much more often than we dare to think. Our thinking is usually limited in scope and we make assumptions based on what we see, know, and assume. Reality, however, is much more complicated and unpredictable than we think.
A recent example of a Black Swan event is the birth of mobile telephony or even just telephony for that matter. It was unthinkable that people could communicate accross vast distances using what looked like a box with holes and any attempt by a time traveller to convince people of the past would only have led to his untimely demise after being branded a practicioner of witchcraft.
These events are the outliers in a data set and ignored in common practices of data analysis and form the undercurrent of the fluctuations we observe in data. Consequently a system that relies on studying variations using a focused model like a normal distribution ignores the impact of the outliers and sets itself up for a fall in case of a negative Black Swan event and fails to grab at positive Black Swans.
A recent study has shown an increasing number of Black Swan events as time progresses. This is logcally an effect of the distributed research now underway accross the world and is how science takes a leap out of the blue. The unpredicted birth of Chaos theory and consequent redefining of the meaning of "Order in Chaos" among other such discoveries are examples of how the civilization as a whole needs Black Swan events to progress.
Science fiction novels are an indication of the limits of our imagination and show the direction we wish civilization to progress. None of the books predating a Black Swan event belie any expectation of such an event or its consequences. They are a result of learnings made during attempts to make the devices that awe us in science fiction but dont come to fruiton in reality.
The release of the design of the first real space craft which holds the promise of long distance space travel in the form of a warp drive has raised hopes and caused the hearts of fans of star trek to skip a beat. The warp drive bends the laws of physics to travel at a speed faster than that of light and promises to let us visit our celestial neighbour for the first time since our birth. While the end result is astounding in and of itself, the path to this long cherished dream might reveal unknown secrets which might unveil the next Black Swan and lead us down a different path.
Black Swan events are also a window to the psychology of man and his belief of holding complete knowledge of the workings of the universe around him and the hindsight bias we all show when we realise we committed a mistake and attempt to rationalize the fault. The opposition to a new scientific principle by skeptics who refuse to believe anything beyond what was learnt in their childhood, the refusal to accept a change in circumstances et al are mere indicators of a far more entrenched fear of being taken away from comfortable circumstances and this, we all share to a ceratin degree but this is what keeps positive Black Swans from living upto their potential while the hesitation allows negative Black Swans to wreak more havoc before they are countered.
The fraility of our systems, both natural and artificial in the presence of chaos is brought to the forefront immediately after every Black Swan event. The fact that they cant be predicted means that little can be done in terms of preparation but creating a robust society which is open to change can allow for a positive impact of Black Swan event and aid the world progress faster.
